Chasekansen op 10 mei

Het ziet er naar uit dat we op 10 mei na de landing op DFW (begin van de middag) en het ophalen van de huurauto, direct kunnen beginnen aan een chase. Waar precies is nog niet geheel duidelijk, ergens tussen Dallas en W Kansas.
Het Storm Prediction Center heeft de mogelijkheid van zwaar weer nu meegnomen in hun lange termijn visie:

"DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT WED MAY 05 2010

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...

THE 05/00Z ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST THE PREVIOUS TWO
RUNS IN SUGGESTING THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY ON DAY 5 /SUN MAY
9TH/...BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS ON DAY 6 /MON MAY 10TH/. WHILE THE LATEST GFS HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO...PREVIOUS RUNS ARE MUCH MORE
SIMILAR...AS ARE A NUMBER OF 05/00Z MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY OVER
ERN CO...ALLOWING FOR THE NWD RETURN OF AN AIR MASS THAT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MOIST GIVEN THE UNDISTURBED STATE OF THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO. ASSUMING A SETUP SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE CURRENT ECMWF...ALL
THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT ON DAY 6 ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM WRN KANSAS SWWD TO NWRN TX."

Er zijn trouwens nog wel de nodige onzekerheden, zoals forecaster Wright van het NWS kantoor in Dodge City KS mooi aangeeft:
"MONDAY IS WHERE MODEL CONTINUITY BEGINS TO FAIL. THE EC IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE PLAINS MON. IT SHOWS A STRONG NEG TILT TROF ALONG WITH RICH MOISTURE AND A SHARP DRYLINE OVER SW KS AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICS AND WOULD PORTEND SVR WX HERE ON MON. THE GFS NOW HAS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE COMING OUT MON, PREFERING TO DIG MORE ENERGY DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE SW CONUS AND NOT RETURN AS MUCH MOISTURE THROUGH THE PLAINS. ALL MODELS NOW KICK THE MAIN ENERGY OUT MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH VARYING RESULTS OVER SW KS - FROM COLD AND RAINY ON THE GFS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL BOUT OF SVR WX ON THE EC. GIVEN THESE INCONSISTENCIES I CHOSE TO LEAVE MON AND BEYOND ALONE."

Ook na 10 mei zijn er trouwens nog goede kansen op interessant weer:
" THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN STATES.
HOWEVER...DETAILS IN ITS EVOLUTION ARE UNCLEAR. THEREFORE...NO
ADDITIONAL AREAS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST."